🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.